What is breaking point for Power Four to potentially leave NCAA?

Eric Prisbell

As the NCAA faces mounting legal threats, one long-speculated question is beginning to gather more steam: Is there a breaking point for Power Four conferences – the moment they run out of patience and look to break away from the association?

Several sources in recent weeks told On3 that there is significant pushback on the reform proposal NCAA President Charlie Baker unveiled last month. Among the many reasons for consternation: Even if the plan is enacted, it still requires a long shot assist from Congress to thwart further legal threats.

Absent Congressional intervention, the only way to implement a model not subject to antitrust scrutiny is for it to be collectively bargained. Athletes need to be employees in order to unionize – which has been a hard line in the sand for virtually all members of the college sports' administrative class.

Some leading stakeholders, Yahoo Sports! reported last week, also believe the proposal does not go far enough to be accepted in settlement negotiations in the House antitrust case, and that only a regulated revenue-sharing model is the prudent move.

Will reform model generate traction?

While Baker's plan would allow schools for the first time to directly pay athletes – through a trust fund established by highly resourced schools in a new subdivision – it stops short of giving athletes a slice of enormous media rights deals at the top tier of college athletics.

"There's definitely pushback on that idea [of the trust fund]," Chicago-based attorney LaKeisha Marsh, chair of the collegiate athletic practice at Akerman LLP, told On3 last week. Marsh regularly advises clients on a host of issues, including Title IX and NIL.

Characterizing the general sentiment among many leading stakeholders right now, Marsh added, "A little bit of trepidation and fear of the unknown. It's an uneasy feeling – that's a better word – of not knowing what is going to happen and what model they should be putting in place."

Marsh applauded the NCAA for attempting to move the ball forward with its bold proposal. But she is unsure if this iteration of the plan will pass. One school of thought is that by allowing schools to directly pay players it would open the door for an easier argument that student-athletes are in fact employees, a designation that comes with a host of complexities for all parties.

"I still don't see [stakeholders] willing" to embrace an employee model, Marsh said. "I think their hands may have to be forced to step into that."

'Everything is on the table'

This week, the National Labor Relations Board trial involving USC, the Pac-12 Conference and the NCAA resumes in a regional office in Los Angeles. Elsewhere, a Boston-based NLRB regional director could decide any day whether Dartmouth men's basketball players are employees of their university.

During this unprecedented time of disruption, everything is on the table.

"You could have a model where you have the NCAA as it is right now, but football fully pulls off of that, maybe basketball fully pulls off of that," one college sports source told On3. "You could see conferences continue to gain more power. There could be decision-making at the conference level that dictates revenue outcomes for athletes sharing in conference-wide revenues."

NCAA needs Power Four for March Madness

Amid breakaway speculation, here's one big reason why the NCAA needs to placate the power leagues: If a breakaway occurs, the power conferences could also take their basketball and look to stage their own lucrative postseason championship tournament.

The NCAA's March Madness rights deal, which runs through 2032 with CBS Sports and Warner Bros. Discovery, delivers the association some $1 billion annually, representing the overwhelming majority of its annual revenue.

Whether the power leagues need the NCAA is an open question. But the NCAA needs the power leagues.

On this specific point, one prominent source told On3: "It is a very real thing to pay attention to."

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